Betting ROI and Yield: Choose the Right Denominator

Which two formulas should be kept separate?

Yield = net result ÷ total stakes × 100%.
Return on starting bankroll = net result ÷ starting bankroll × 100%.

If the net result is +20, total stakes are 400 and starting bankroll is 100, yield is 5% while starting-bankroll return is 20%. Neither is the win rate. The original channel post used both denominators under “ROI”; this guide separates them explicitly.

How does a small betting journal work?

Total stakes: 40. Total returns: 48. Net result: +8. Yield: 8 ÷ 40 = 20%. Two out of three bets won, approximately 66.67%, which is a different measure.

Record date, event, market, stake, accepted odds, settlement, return and net result. Keep all losses and avoid counting an open bet as a settled win.

How do deposits and withdrawals affect the calculation?

A balance change alone is not profit. With no open bets or bonus adjustments, a cash reconciliation is: closing balance + withdrawals − deposits − opening balance. Starting with 100, depositing 50, withdrawing 20 and ending with 140 gives a net result of 140 + 20 − 50 − 100 = 10, not 40.

Separate bonuses, commissions, fees and currency conversion. State whether refunded stakes are included in turnover; including or excluding them changes the percentage. Use the same convention for every comparison.

Does positive ROI prove skill?

No. A positive result describes that recorded sample. A small number of bets, unequal stakes or one large win can dominate it. A larger sample is more informative but still does not prove that an advantage will persist.

Can you compare two accounts by ROI alone?

Only with clear denominators and comparable periods, costs and records—and even then the number alone does not establish who has greater skill. Report the money result, turnover, sample size and method together.